Karnataka Elections: Is The "DAKSHIN DWAR" Shut for Modi's BJP Ahead of The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections?

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE KARNATAKA STATE ELECTIONS!!

Is The "DAKSHIN DWAR" Shut for Modi's BJP Ahead of The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections? | Karnataka Elections: All You Need To Know about it? | The State Legislative Assembly Elections of Karnataka was held on 10th May 2023 for all the 224 seats, the result of which was declared on 13th of May 2023. The results seemed shocking to the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi led Bhartiya Janta Party which suffered a mammoth defeat in the elections.

THE RESULTS:

The assembly poll results were declared on 13th of May, 2023 which showed the Country's current largest ruling party [Bhartiye Janta Party(BJP)] stammering. Among the 224 seats in the assembly, the BJP only managed to incur 66 seats which is 38 seats lesser than what it managed to win in the previous assembly elections which were held in 2018. The defeat came at the hands of BJP's direct opposition, The Indian National Congress(INC) which overcame all the odds and managed to gain a comfortable majority by incurring 135 seats of the 224 seats in the state assembly.

Apparently, the total number of seats required to win the assembly and earn the right to govern the state is called the majority, which is half plus one of the total seats in a particular assembly which in this case was (224/2 +1) that  equals 113 seats.

Party	Seats Won in 2023	Seats won in 2018	Gain/Loss since previous elections
The Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP)	66	104	-38
The Indian National Congress (INC)	135	80	+55
JD(S)	19	37	-18
Others	4	3	+1

 

The Main Point: Why were the Karnataka Elections important for The BJP?

The Karnataka Elections (which is also termed as Dakshin Dwar for politics) held a major importance for the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) faction as it was seen as an entry point for the BJP into the Southern Topography of India which remained the only major region where no single state is under the direct administration of the BJP. Indeed, the result depicts that the opportunity once again has alluded for the BJP which suffered a major defeat in the Karnataka state legislative assembly elections. The defeat also seems shattering all the hopes of BJP to further its vision of establishing its government in the entire country. The Narendra Modi led faction tried its utter best to score at this major time as we are heading towards the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The result further harms Narendra Modi's popularity* as he himself led many rallies before the elections. The BJP faction's major two of the very successful arms, which were Narendra Modi's popularity and the sole idea of "subaltern Hindutva", failed to deliver at this bout. Moreover, BJP's new idea of promoting the youth and thus giving tickets to new generation youngsters instead of the already irrevocable senior politicians (which proved successful in the Gujrat state assembly elections this year) failed to deliver here, further affecting its position.

Does this mark the end of Narendra Modi's popularity and BJP's fate?

Many critics termed this defeat at the Karnataka State assembly as a game changer and as end of the Modi era.

But for those of you who are not aware, one thing that is for sure is that the name Narendra Modi and the magic attached to it is still very well intact. Prime Minister Shree Narendra Modi's popularity, at least for now if not in future, is unmatched with any other political leader in the entire world and not just in India. He has been ranked as number one in the list of 'World's most popular leaders' in the ''Global Leader Approval" ratings which was released by American research company, Morning Consult in the year 2021. The list always keeps on updating and it still ranks Shree Narendra Modi at the apex. This is enough to denote how bigger a brand Shree Narendra Modi actually is. 

As far as the Indian South is concerned, there too PM Modi's popularity is much if not enough. Looking at the vote share of the Karnataka results we come to know that the Bhartiya Janta Party has been able to maintain a respectable vote share in which Mr. Modi played a huge role. According to various reports, the BJP managed to incur 36% of the vote share in the 2023 elections which is just 0.2% less than its previous vote share of 36.2% in the 2018 state assembly. Also, within this vote share, 13% of the votes were polled only on the name of the Indian Prime Minister Mr. Modi, as stated by few sources, thus depicting the hold Mr. Modi has on the masses.

On the other hand, the Grand Old Party (GOP) aka the Indian National Congress (INC) set record by acquiring 42.9% vote share which was the highest by any party in the Karnataka state assembly elections in the last 34 years.

Party	2023 Vote Share	2018 Vote Share	2013 Vote Share	2008 Vote Share
The Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP)	36.0%	36.2%	19.9%	33.9%
The Indian National Congress (INC)	42.9%	38.1%	36.6%	34.8%
JD(S)	13.3%	18.3%	20.2%	19.0%
Others	7.8%	7.4%	23.3%	12.3%

 

On further examination we also get to know that INC has always had a larger vote share than BJP in the Karnataka state elections. This is because rural Karnataka due to the caste equations, has always had a fixed Congress vote, thus the myths of BJP and Narendra Modi being flopped are nothing but false. 

What's next for Modi and BJP?

As it is evident from the Karnataka state assembly elections that the Grand Old Party is yet not that old to be completely out of picture for the forthcoming Lok Sabha Elections next year. The Grand Old Party aka INC which was been mocked by few BJP leaders as The Grand Obsolete Party (instead of OLD) in the recent past had replied to them in a fashionable manner. Thus, it's time for the Bhartiya Janta Party to pull up their socks and get prepared for the Lok Sabha elections now, in order to maintain their superiority. It's time for the senior leaders to recapitulate their strategies and not to take their oppositions lightly as it is very well palpable from the recent state elections. The BJP needs to fight with its full caliber and bounce back strongly in the soon coming Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh state assembly elections in order to regain the lost momentum.

That's it from our side. Do let us know in the comment section your view on Shree Narendra Modi Ji's Popularity and on the consequences of this defeat in the forthcoming Lok Sabha assembly elections scheduled next year.

THANKYOU!

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